搜索结果: 1-15 共查到“经济学 Forecasts”相关记录21条 . 查询时间(0.045 秒)
Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy
Federal funds futures Monetary policy
2015/7/23
Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets’
expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures
reflect...
Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased
Forecasting and Prediction Cash Flow Cost of Capital Performance Expectations Prejudice and Bias Valuation
2015/4/23
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected ...
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
Earnings Management Governing and Advisory Boards Compensation and Benefits Managerial Roles Personal Development and Career
2015/4/22
We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismiss...
Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts
global economic crisis the second wave inflation, US dollar consumer price index producer price index money supply M1 M2 US public debt crashes bubbles critical phenomena complexity power-law functions log-periodic oscillation
2012/9/14
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913–2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic osci...
Monetary Policy Transparency and Private Sector Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data
monetary policy transparency private sector future monetary policy action longer-horizon predictability
2011/8/21
The article presents an analysis on the monetary policy transparency and private sector in the U.S. It provides a framework for discussing monetary policy transparency and how transparency is related ...
Do Supplementary Sales Forecasts Increase the Credibility of Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts?
fi nancial analyst sales forecast revenue forecast forecast accuracy
2011/8/21
This study examines whether the market reacts more strongly to earnings forecast revisions when financial analysts supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts. I find that earnings foreca...
The Effects of Financial Statement Information Proximity and Feedback on Cash Flow Forecasts
financial statement cash flows feedback
2011/8/20
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), in their joint Financial Statement Presentation project, are reconsidering the basic format of fina...
Discussion of 'The Effects of Financial Statement Information Proximity and Feedback on Cash Flow Forecasts'
financial statement the competitive market environment neural processing of financial data
2011/8/20
The article presents a discussion of issues raised in the article "The effect of financial statement information proximity and feedback on cash flow forecasts" by Frank D. Hodge, Patrick E. Hopkins, a...
The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations Volume II-Master Document
Experiment Advanced Diagnostics Forecasts Bubble Terminations Volume II-Master Document
2010/10/20
This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 ...
Two stock options at the races: Black-Scholes forecasts
stock options races Black-Scholes forecasts
2010/10/20
Suppose one buys two very similar stocks and is curious about how much, after some time T, one of them will contribute to the overall asset, expecting, of course, that it should be around 1/2 of the s...
The Financial Bubble Experiment: advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations
The Financial Bubble Experiment advanced diagnostics forecasts of bubble terminations
2010/11/2
This is a summary of the first installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment (FBE), where we identified four asset bubbles in November and December 2009 and revealed their names on 3 May 2010. Here w...
Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-term Forecasts for Regional Integration
Growth Trade Asia
2009/9/1
With the emergence of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy have changed. Using a new dynamic global model, we present forec...
Volatility forecasts and the at-the-money implied volatility: a multi-components ARCH approach and its relation with market models
Volatility forecasts at-the-money implied relation
2010/10/29
For a given time horizon T, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t + T), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-t...
The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations, Volume III
The Financial Bubble Experiment Advanced Diagnostics
2010/12/13
This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 2...
Can the Random Walk Model be Beaten in Out-Of-Sample Density Forecasts? Evidence from...
Density forecasts GARCH Intraday exchange rate Jumps Maximum likelihood estimation Nonlinear time series Out-of-sample forecasts Regime-switching
2011/4/2
It has been documented that random walk outperforms most economic structural and time series models in out-of-sample forecasts of the conditional mean dynamics of exchange rates. In this paper, we stu...