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In parametric, nonlinear structural models, a classical sufficient condition for local identification, like Fisher (1966) and Rothenberg (1971), is that the vector of moment conditions is differentiab...
We study mechanism design in dynamic quasilinear environments where private information arrives over time and decisions are made over multiple periods. We make three contributions. First, we provide a...
Parents gauge school quality in part by the level of student achievement and a school抯 racial and socioeconomic mix. The importance of school characteristics in the housing market can be seen in the...
We study repeated Bayesian games with communication and observable actions in which the players' privately known payoffs evolve according to an irreducible Markov chain whose transitions are independe...
可信性是计量经济学应用研究的重要问题,其核心在于实现经济理论、统计学、数学在实证研究中的科学结合。文章首先厘清计量经济学探索客观经济世界过程的本质特征,进而从模型的随机性设定、经济变量之间的因果关系识别以及模型的统计适切性评价等三个方面论述计量经济学应用研究的可信性来源。
通胀预期问题已成为当前和下一阶段我国经济发展中必须关注的问题。本文对我国不同期限国债的名义和实际收益建立了含有宏观因子和潜在因子的仿射无套利模型,从通胀补偿中分解出了通胀预期。研究认为:分解出的短期和中期通胀预期与通胀率的动态关联性较强,而长期通胀预期和通胀率的动态关联性较弱;各期限通胀预期都不是理性预期,但中期和长期预期是适应性预期;发现CPI是影响通胀预期的最重要因素,其影响效果随着期限增加而...
In this paper we study the continuum time dynamics of a stock in a market where agents behavior is modeled by a Minority Game with number of strategies for each agent S=2 and "fake" market histories. ...
We discuss a new notion of risk measures that preserve the property of coherence called Copula Conditional Tail Expectation (CCTE). This measure describes the expected amount of risk that can be exper...
The generalized correlation approach, which has been successfully used in statistical radio physics to describe non-Gaussian random processes, is proposed to describe stochastic financial processes. T...
A generalized bridge is the law of a stochastic process that is conditioned on linear functionals of its path. We consider two types of representations of such bridges: orthogonal and canonical. In th...
The univariate piecing-together approach (PT) fits a univariate generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of a given distribution function in a continuous manner. We propose a multivaria...
A quantitative analysis of the basic components of the daily DJIA. The parameters of the underlying Lorentzian states are obtained by fitting the data. Statistical properties of the states are discuss...
We consider the problem of stochastic comparison of general Garch-like processes, for different parameters and different distributions of the innovations. We identify several stochastic orders that ar...
In two previous papers the author developed a second-order price adjustment (t\^atonnement) process. This paper extends the approach to include both quantity and price adjustments. We demonstrate thre...
在城市化与产业结构综合指标体系的基础上,通过建立VAR模型对城市化综合水平与产业结构相关指数的关系进行动态计量分析,结果表明:城市化综合水平对产业结构综合指数、产值结构综合指数、就业结构综合指数存在单向的因果关系;城市化与产值结构综合指数存在唯一的长期均衡关系,且对产值结构的影响短期内为正、长期为负。城市化综合水平对产业结构综合指数与就业结构综合指数无论从短期还是长期来看均具有持久的正向效应,并且...

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