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Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize Occupation Time
Optimal Investment Strategy Minimize Occupation Time
2010/12/20
We find the optimal investment strategy to minimize the expected time that an individual's wealth stays below zero, the so-called {\it occupation time}. The individual consumes at a constant rate and...
Functional-coefficient models for nonstationary time series data
Nonstationary Nonlinearity Semiparametric estimation
2011/4/2
This paper studies functional coefficient regression models with nonstationary time series data, allowing also for stationary covariates. A local linear fitting scheme is developed to estimate the coe...
Multistep Bayesian strategy in coin-tossing games and its application to asset trading games in continuous time
Multistep Bayesian strategy coin-tossing games
2010/12/13
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, ...
The proposed model modifies option pricing formulas for the basic case of log-normal probability distribution providing correspondence to formulated criteria of efficiency and completeness. The model ...
We combine general equilibrium theory and theorie generale of stochastic processes to derive structural results about equilibrium state prices.
Finite-time singularity in the evolution of hyperinflation episodes
Finite-time evolution hyperinflation episodes
2010/12/13
A model proposed by Sornette, Takayasu, and Zhou for describing hyperinflation regimes based on adaptive expectations expressed in terms of a power law which leads to a finite-time singularity is revi...
Effects of time dependency and efficiency on information flow in financial markets
efficiency information flow financial markets
2010/12/13
We investigated financial market data to determine which factors affect information flow between stocks. Two factors, the time dependency and the degree of efficiency, were considered in the analysis...
Forecasting with time-varying vector autoregressive models
time-varying vector autoregressive models
2010/12/13
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible ...
We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The...
Activity spectrum from waiting-time distribution
Activity spectrum waiting-time distribution
2010/12/13
In high frequency financial data not only returns but also waiting times between trades are random variables. In this work, we analyze the spectra of the waiting-time processes for tick-by-tick trades...
Dual method for continuous-time Markowitz's Problems with nonlinear wealth equations
Dual method continuous-time Markowitz's Problems nonlinear wealth equations
2010/12/20
Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model with nonlinear wealth equations and bankruptcy prohibition is investigated by the dual method. A necessary and sufficient condition which the op...
Fractional derivatives of random walks: Time series with long-time memory
Fractional derivatives random walks Time series long-time memory
2010/12/20
We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochas...
From Black-Scholes and Dupire formulae to last passage times of local martingales. Part A : The infinite time horizon
Black-Scholes Dupire formulae last passage times local martingales Part A infinite time horizon
2010/12/20
These notes are the first half of the contents of the course given by the second author at the Bachelier Seminar (February 8-15-22 2008) at IHP. They also correspond to topics studied by the first aut...
Characteristic Function-Based Testing for Multifactor Continuous-Time Markov Models via Nonparametri
Conditional characteristic function Goodness-of-fit Multifactor continuous-time Markov model Nonparametric regression
2011/4/2
We develop a nonparametric regression-based goodness-of-fit test for multifactor continuous-time Markov models using the conditional characteristic function, which often has a convenient closed-form o...
Using self-similarity and renormalization group to analyze time series
Using self-similarity renormalization group analyze time series
2010/12/20
An algorithm based on Renormalization Group (RG) to analyze time series forecasting was proposed in cond-mat/0110285. In this paper we explicitly code and test it. We choose in particular some financ...