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We explore conditions under which trade agreements can provide gains by reducing trade-policy uncertainty. Given the degree of income risk aversion, this is more likely when economies are more open, e...
Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty:Theory and Firm Evidence
Investment Trade Uncertainty Policy Agreements
2015/9/22
Using a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model with sunk costs of exporting we show that: (i) investment and entry into export markets is reduced when trade policy is uncertain and (ii) credible preferent...
Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare:Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S.
Policy Uncertainty Trade Welfare China the U.S.
2015/9/22
We examine the impact of policy uncertainty on trade and real income through firms’ export investments in general equilibrium. We quantify the trade policy causes and welfare effects of China’s export...
We consider two classes of explanations for the rise in policy-related economic uncertainty in the United States since 1960. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes,and regulation. A s...
This paper shows that with (partial) irreversibility higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious w...
How General Are Risk Preferences? Choices under Uncertainty in Different Domains
Risk Preferences Different Domains
2014/9/10
We analyze the extent to which individuals' choices over five employer-provided insurance coverage decisions and one 401(k) investment decision exhibit systematic patterns, as would be implied by a ge...
Uncertainty and Ambiguity:Turkey's Perception on the Rise of China
Eastern Turkistan the rise of China Turkey
2015/8/19
This paper aims to analyze how China’s rise is perceived by minor powers in the world system. Taking Turkey as the case study, the paper focuses on major issue areas such as bilateral trade and busine...