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What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?
Term structure Forecasting Financial markets and the macroeconomy
2015/7/23
A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread
forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor
endogeneity. We bu...
Bond yields respond to policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and
vice versa. To learn about these responses, I model a high-frequency
policy rule based on yield curve information and an arbitrage-...
A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables
erm structure dynamics macroeconomic
2015/7/23
We describe the joint dynamics of bond yields and macroeconomic variables in a Vector
Autoregression, where identifying restrictions are based on the absence of arbitrage. Using a
term structure mod...
ADJUSTMENT COSTS, FIRM RESPONSES, AND MICRO VS. MACRO LABOR SUPPLY ELASTICITIES: EVIDENCE FROM DANISH TAX RECORDS
ADJUSTMENT COSTS FIRM RESPONSES
2015/7/23
We show that the e§ects of taxes on labor supply are shaped by interactions between
adjustment costs for workers and hours constraints set by Örms. We develop a model
in which Örms post jo...
This paper provides an introduction to the special issue of the Review of Economic Dynamics
on “Cross Sectional Facts for Macroeconomists”. The issue documents, for nine countries, the
level and the...
The Limited Influence of Unemployment on the Wage Bargain
Limited Influence Unemployment Wage Bargain
2015/7/21
When a job-seeker and an employer meet, find a prospective joint surplus, and bargain over the wage, conditions in the outside labor market, including especially unemployment, may have limited influen...
Quasi-linear preferences in the macroeconomy: Indeterminacy, heterogeneity and the representative consumer
Macroeconomic quasi linear preference heterogeneity and consumers
2015/7/21
Quasi-linear preferences in the macroeconomy: Indeterminacy, heterogeneity and the representative consumer.
ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AND ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES
Endogenous Growth Endogenous Business Cycles Innovation R&D, Technological Progress RBC
2015/7/21
This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model of endogenous (stochastic) growth and cycles that can account for two key features of the aggregate data: balanced growth in the long run and...
Income and Wealth Distributions Along the Business Cycle: Implications from the Neoclassical Growth Model
Neoclassical growth model heterogeneous agents aggregation business cycle income and wealth distributions inequality
2015/7/21
This paper studies the business cycle dynamics of income and wealth distributions in the context of the neoclassical growth model where agents are heterogeneous in initial wealth and non-acquired skil...
Auctionomics and Power Auctions have submitted this exhibit to the Incentive
Auction NPRM at the request of the Commission’s staff. Its purpose is to elicit more
focused comments and to present a ...
Deferred-Acceptance Auctions and Radio Spectrum Reallocation
Radio Spectrum Reallocation Deferred-Acceptance Auctions
2015/7/21
Deferred-acceptance auctions choose allocations by an iterative
process of rejecting the least attractive bid. These auctions have
distinctive computational and incentive properties that make them
...
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Topics
international trade small-open economy multiple equilibria poverty trap growth miracles coordination problem
2015/7/21
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Topics.
IDENTIFICATION IN ASCENDING AUCTIONS WITH ASYMMETRIC CORRELATED PRIVATE VALUES
ASYMMETRIC CORRELATED PRIVATE VALUES SCENDING AUCTIONS
2015/7/21
We present a nonparametric approach to identi cation in ascending
auctions when bidders may be asymmetric and have correlated private values. Our
approach builds on and generalizes that of Aradillas...
We describe factors that make bidding in large spectrum auctions complex ó including exposure and budget problems, the role of timing within an ascending auction,
and the possibilities for price fore...
Incentive problems arise in many economic
relationships. Contracts that tie compensation to
performance can mitigate incentive problems, but
writing completely effective contracts is often
impract...