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Deficits, Economic Stabilization and Growth.
In 1992, President Bush proposed legislation intended to speed up the
recovery from the 1990-91 recession. Congress rejected this proposal for
countercyclical fiscal policy stimulus. In early 1993 P...
The State of the Economy and Principles for Fiscal Stimulus
Fiscal Stimulus industrial production
2015/8/3
The financial crisis evidenced in Figure 1 can be traced to unusually low interest
rates in the early part of this decade which let to the housing boom and bust, and then to
massive delinquencies an...
The Lack of an Empirical Rationale for a Revival of Discretionary Fiscal Policy
Empirical Rationale Discretionary Fiscal Policy
2015/8/3
A decade ago in a paper, “Reassessing
Discretionary Fiscal Policy,” published in the
Journal of Economic Perspectives, I concluded
that “in the current context of the US economy, it
seems best to ...
New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers
New Keynesian versus Old Keynesian Government
2015/8/3
Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to
evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations
be robust to alternative ...
Fiscal Consolidation Strategy: An Update for the Budget Reform Proposal of March 2013
Budget Fiscal Consolidation Strategy
2015/8/3
Recently, we evaluated a fiscal consolidation strategy for the United States that would
bring the government budget into balance by gradually reducing government spending
relative to GDP to the rati...
Working Over Time:Dynamic Inconsistency in Real Effort Tasks
Time Discounting Demand for Commitment Real Effort Convex Time Budget
2015/7/23
Experimental tests of dynamically inconsistent time preferences have largely relied on choices over time-dated monetary rewards. Several recent studies have failed to find the standard patterns of pre...
How Costly Is Diversity?Affirmative Action in Light of Gender Differences in Competitiveness
gender differences competitiveness affirmative action
2015/7/23
Affirmative action is often criticized for causing reverse discrimination and lowering the qualifications of those hired under the policy. However, the magnitude of such adverse effects depends on whe...
The Limits of Career Concerns in Federalism:Evidence from China
career concerns federalism hierarchies public goods autocracy China
2015/7/23
Performance-based promotion schemes in administrative hierarchies have limitations. Chinese provincial leaders, despite facing strong career concerns, make different policy decisions depending on thei...
The model fits the data
well both within the sample of unrestricted sales used for estimation,
and when we predict (out-of-sample) outcomes for small business
set-asides. Our estimates suggest t...
Equity Depletion from Government-Guaranteed Debt
Equity Depletion Government-Guaranteed Debt
2015/7/20
Government guarantees of private debt deplete equity. The depletion is greatest during periods when the probability of a guarantee payoff is highest. In a setting otherwise subject to Modigliani-Mille...
Governments determine the size of the unit of value just as they determine the length of the length and weight of physical units of measure. What are the different ways that a government can control t...
Fiscal stimulus
Fiscal stimulus
2015/7/20
During the calm period in recent U.S. macroeconomic history, from the mid- 1980s to mid-2000s, stabilization policy relied mainly on monetary policy to deal with recessions, which were mild and many y...
Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions
National debt deficit fiscal policy
2015/7/20
Using a recursive empirical model of the real interest rate, GDP growth and the primary government deficit in the United States, I solve for the ergodic distribution of the debt/GDP ratio. If such a d...
HOSPITAL OWNERSHIP AND PUBLIC MEDICAL SPENDING.